Books

Understanding the past is essential to good business forecasting. A History of American Business Cycles aims to provide an up-to-date overview of business and financial cycles in the United States by drawing upon a proprietary monthly measure of real gross output, a wide variety of historical macroeconomic and industry data, and extensive secondary literature. The book reviews the key features of historical economic upswings and downswings over the course of two-and-a-half centuries, encompassing nearly 50 US business cycles since the 1780s. The author examines what happens during business cycles, reviews orthodox theories of the business cycle, and looks at how cycles in one sector of the economy affect fluctuations in other sectors. These forces foster business cycles and determine their duration and amplitude. Finally, the book provides a historical narrative of US business cycles since Independence to shed light on the drivers of cyclical change. A History of American Business Cycles examines each of the 48 cycles since the founding of the nation. A knowledge of the past will aid assessment of current and future cyclical trends, and thus business forecasting.